Sinn Féin’s Defensive Battle: Holding Ground Ahead of 2027 Elections
Last weekend, Sinn Féin met for their Ard Fheis in Belfast, kicking off their campaign to not just get the party’s 27 incumbent MLAs re-elected but also to get Michelle O’Neill re-elected as First Minister.
Having held the post for just three years by the time of the next election, the party will not want to cede this important symbolic position to the DUP, and they won’t want to lose the prized Department for the Economy either. Whilst the popular vote margin between the two parties is around six percentage points, the seat count is much closer; at present, just one seat separates the parties. This is a figure you will be hearing more about from both sides as the election approaches.
Blanket Defence
In the previous election cycle, Sinn Féin surged, with impressive results in the 2022 Assembly and 2023 Local Elections. Out of 552 seats up for grabs across both contests, Sinn Féin holds 171 of them. That means that 31% of the seats are held by them alone. The western councils and constituencies of Northern Ireland are a sea of Sinn Féin green, with the party particularly dominant in that part of the island.
The big challenge now is holding on to it. Once you make the gains, holding them is the really hard part, and that is what the party is facing on May 7th, 2027. Sinn Féin will have to run the campaign of their lives, running a defensive action that holds the many seats they will be defending.
Who do the polls say?
A single poll is a snapshot in time, but a series of polls can help you identify a trend. The recent LucidTalk polls need to be taken at two levels. Since the last election, Sinn Féin has trended down from the low thirties to the mid-low twenties. A mix of low approval ratings for the Executive has unquestionably hurt the party mid-term.
If the party scored 24% of the vote next May, they would see a 5% drop in support and return to their 2016 levels. Some of the gains in places like Upper Bann, South Down and East Londonderry, where they would have hoped to pick up seats, would slip away, and two or three of their current MLAs would be vulnerable.
There is a but here. Think back to 2021, what do we see in the polls? Sinn Féin in the low-mid twenty per cent range. We saw a similar story before the 2017 Assembly Election. This is a party that typically trends up in the polls once a campaign gets going, as issues around who will be the First Minister come into focus.
Sinn Féin also benefits from a strong organisation that can actually deliver the practical elements of a campaign, such as putting up posters and knocking on doors.
Whenever you read an analysis of a party's position at this stage of the political cycle, it is always worth comparing trends with similar periods in previous years.
Challenges Ahead
A three-year surge now has to be defended. There is a record in the Executive that will also need to be defended. Unlike the 2017 and 2022 contests, there is unlikely to be a collapse before the next election.
Returning Michelle O’Neill as First Minister will be an important symbolic milestone for the party. More substantively, they will need to retain the top spot to secure first choice in the D’Hondt process for picking departments and to maintain their strength in the Executive.
The latter part has often not received enough consideration and strategic thought from the party and analysts. Sinn Féin needs to show that it can not only lead Nationalism but also the Executive.