Northern Ireland’s Draft Multi-Year Budget: Promise, Pressure and Priorities
The Finance Minister John O’Dowd MLA has set out his proposals for a Draft Budget covering the period 2026–27 to 2029–30 and launched a public consultation on what is described as a long‑overdue return to multi‑year budgeting. A multi-year budget would allow Stormont departments to plan longer-term spending, and the adjoining consultation will give the public an opportunity to have a say on how departmental funding should be prioritised.
Under the draft budget for 2026/27, only four departments would see a modest increase in day-to-day funding for next year - education, health, justice and infrastructure, whilst others will see baselines drop. This leaves, for example, the Department for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs with no increase next year followed by minimal increases across the next three years to tackle the pollution in Lough Neagh amongst other issues. The Minister said it was "simply not possible to provide any department with the funding it has requested", which means balancing the books and the increased strategic planning this budget could facilitate is more important than ever. The draft budget does not, however, reflect any overspend from this year – which means these figures may be subject to change at a later stage, taking away from an already decreasing block grant.
The Minister has earmarked capital funding for a number of major projects and services. He has proposed over £100 million for Casement Park, which is significantly more than the £62.5 originally set out in 2011 and more than £1 billion across the four years to upgrade the A5 - which is currently stalled due to legal challenges. There is also £443 million proposed for social homes; £434 million for wastewater infrastructure; £24 million for SEN building projects; £67 million for sub-regional stadia and £500 million to tackle waiting lists. The Minister is proposing to increase the regional rate by 5% year on year, which would raise an additional £250m over the next three years on top of what is already raised in revenue through the rates system. These proposals signal a significant shift towards long-term investment in infrastructure and public services, funded in part by higher regional rates, but such proposals will rely heavily on the effectiveness of their delivery if they are to be agreed by the Executive.
The draft budget has been met with political opposition from across almost all the parties represented in the Assembly. The DUP has labelled proposals as "a John O'Dowd budget" with the Deputy First Minister Emma Little Pengelly MLA and Education Minister Paul Givan MLA publicly stating opposition to the outlined measures. The UUP has also criticised the budget, stating that it “fails to deliver the necessary transformation in key public services" and the SDLP has called the publication an "unambitious ghost budget, bereft of vision".
The Executive now has an opportunity to agree its first multi-year budget in over a decade. With no further fiscal aid likely from London, the pressure is on to deliver.