From Ballots to Blueprint: An Opportunity to Reimagine Devolution
Earlier this month, the elections in Scotland and Wales helped rock the UK political system. The solid win for the SNP in Holyrood and the implosion of the Welsh Labour Party, being supplanted by Plaid Cymru, has put Keir Starmer’s future as Prime Minister in real jeopardy.
Much was made locally of the changing dynamics of having John Swinney, Michelle O’Neill and Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Ministers in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, respectively. The so-called “Celtic Alliance” was hoped by pro-independence advocates to have the potential to make a constitutional case to reshape the United Kingdom.
However, the current Labour government has firmly ruled out holding a referendum in either Scotland or Northern Ireland, while Plaid Cymru is committing to pursuing an independence referendum during the course of the next mandate.
It would also be remiss not to mention that Emma Little-Pengelly jointly heads our own Executive, which means that pro-union views are not totally absent at the top of the devolved administrations.
What's the reality?
If a vote on breaking up the United Kingdom is more of a slow burn over the medium term, what can we expect from this dynamic within the devolved administrations?
The first unity ticket that all the devolved administrations will be calling for is more fiscal resources to meet the challenges they face. What is striking is whether you are listening to Holyrood, Stormont or the Senedd, each administration makes the same budgetary pitch, focusing on underfunding and a better deal from Westminster.
Whilst administrations calling for more money is not a radical departure, the narrative that came across clearly in the devolved and local elections earlier this month is that, for many people, there is a sense that Westminster is not working properly or doing enough to tackle problems. Any potential reset or change in Prime Minister will have to take into account not just this sentiment but the electoral catastrophe that has meant for Labour in particular.
The devolved administrations should spend the next few weeks getting their budgetary ducks in a row, ensuring that credible cases and arguments can be put forward to any potential new Prime Minister or Secretary of State as to the level of underfunding that exists, but more importantly, why more resources will help the Labour government boost economic growth and improve service delivery.
Another noteworthy change the devolved elections could bring about is renewed energy in the devolution conversation. To varying degrees, Plaid and the SNP ran on more powers being devolved to their respective parliaments. For the SNP, there is a push to devolve areas such as employment law, and for Plaid, a move to devolve a suite of powers, including policing and justice. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin has made the case for greater fiscal devolution to the Executive.
Turbo-Charging Manchesterism?
On the horizon, there is the potential of a Prime Minister who is basing his claim for the top job on his track record as the Mayor of Greater Manchester. Andy Burnham’s concept of “Manchesterism”, which emphasises the importance of local decision makers driving change, could be a devolution game-changer if he succeeds in becoming Labour Leader and Prime Minister.
Regardless, the popularity of a candidate like Burnham, combined with the recent electoral success of parties such as Plaid and the SNP, demonstrates that the public wants to shift away from Westminster-made approaches. Since the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum, the debate around devolution and its purpose stalled.
We saw during the pandemic the importance and impact that the devolved administrations can have, both for better and for worse. As Brexit moves into the rearview mirror as a priority, pro-devolution sentiment is gaining more traction.
There is an opportunity, if the heads of the devolved governments want to drive it and Labour want to embrace it, to reimagine devolution as it approaches its 30th anniversary.