Only 188 days remain until the next election. In six months, we will prepare to vote for the next Assembly and our local councils.
The campaigns are well underway. We can already see each party's election strategy taking shape. Yet even before the election campaign proper begins, many undecided issues could significantly affect the final result.
The big question: Will the Executive survive?
Drumcree's return to the political agenda after 28 years has cast doubt on the Executive's stability and future. In the weeks that followed, the DUP claimed it cannot be “business as usual”, and on Thursday we saw what that means in reality. Joint appearances between the First and deputy First Ministers will cease, and the party will use “targeted deploying of the Petition of Concern against elements of Sinn Fein business.”
For now, the DUP will remain in the Executive, but the institutions' ability to progress anything meaningful before dissolution will be severely hindered. As relationships have fractured, repairing them will almost certainly fall to the next mandate.
If the deputy First Minister is withdrawn in the future, the changes brought about by New Decade, New Approach should ensure individual ministers stay in post in a caretaker capacity for a number of months.
The big issue is whether talks with the UK government progress enough to agree on a budget, or whether one will have to be imposed over the Executive's head.
What does the campaign look like?
The campaign is already taking shape for some parties. Sinn Féin is using some of its MPs to win or hold target seats. Chris Hazzard is trying to capitalise on new boundaries to win Strangford; Pat Cullen is trying to inject momentum in South Belfast & Mid Down; and Paul Maskey, part of a well-known political dynasty in the constituency, has been drafted in to help keep four out of five seats. Boundary changes in West Belfast mean a Unionist has a good chance of winning one of the five seats.
As we left party conference season, the Unionist parties talked about unity and finding a common approach. These were themes of the UUP and DUP conferences. Drumcree has exposed differences in approach among the three main Unionist parties, and one dynamic to watch is whether this conversation goes anywhere in the new year.
If polls show Sinn Féin surging, does that mean they're placing greater emphasis on putting recent differences aside, or is the distrust too great?
What are the polls saying so far?
Looking at the trend throughout 2026, Sinn Féin holds a 12-point lead and is on track to be returned as the largest party. This is based on the first poll conducted after Drumcree re-emerged. We will have more data by the end of the year to see its impact on the overall state of play.
What is fascinating is that the TUV, SDLP, and Alliance have all been neck and neck, with the UUP slightly ahead, but the third-, fourth-, and fifth-place order will be one to watch going into 2027. This will determine important issues such as who is eligible for the Executive and who will lead the Official Opposition.
Can dysfunction drive support?
The 2022 collapse bolstered Sinn Féin and the Alliance Party, who, for very different reasons, were able to capitalise on the crisis facing Stormont at the time. Similarly, by walking out of government, the DUP stopped haemorrhaging support, as it had been doing for the previous year.
As we look at the next six months, it is a moment to ask who a crisis benefits and who can capture the votes of those who want more from our current system.