LucidTalk’s Latest Poll: The Numbers That Could Redraw the Political MaP

A new LucidTalk poll published in this week's Belfast Telegraph has caused quite a stir in political circles. After a tumultuous year and the Assembly and Local Elections coming firmly into view, polls have a real impact on how we debate and view the upcoming campaigns. Like every poll, this is a snapshot in time, but what does it tell us and if anything like it gets repeated next May, what kind of Assembly would we get?

The winners

The big winner from this poll is the UUP. For just the second time in the past few years, they are ahead of the DUP in a Lucid Talk poll. At 16%, the party will have a spring in their step ahead of party conference season starting in September. This result comes after a previous poll showed a strong personal rating for the leader, Jon Burrows. You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find the last time the UUP  were at this level of support in an Assembly Election. The UUP would be on for gains next May and would be in a dogfight with the DUP to see who could come out as the largest party of Unionism.

Another winner is the SDLP. Poor polls have plagued the party’s morale and undermined their confidence for years. This poll gives them something to be happy about. A 13% score puts some clear water between them and Alliance. In 2022, all of the SDLP losses went to the Alliance Party.  For the SDLP to regain lost ground, they need to win those voters back. This showing would take them back to the levels of support they enjoyed from 2011-2016. In addition, it would bring the party seat count back into double figures, and they would also regain an entitlement to a seat at the Executive table.

The TUV on 12% have also achieved a strong showing. In 2022, the party had a solid first preference of just under 8% but did not add a single seat, partly due to transfers and the DUP having quite substantial margins in a number of seats. However, with this rating the party would be set to add a number of seats, and for the first time in over two decades, the DUP would have a rival assembly grouping to their political right in the chamber.

Another winner is the Greens, polling once again at 5%. They were the big losers in 2022, getting wiped out. At this level of support, they would be serious contenders to re-enter the Assembly and would also do some damage to rivals at the local election.

The losers

There are three clear losers in the poll, and they are the three main parties in the Executive: Sinn Féin, DUP and Alliance. Each one has something to worry about coming out of this poll. Let’s start with the DUP polling at just 15%. Rarely do we ever see the main party of Unionism down so low in a poll in Northern Ireland. After a difficult few months, the DUP’s standing is taking a hit. If this poll were repeated next May, this would be the worst result at an Assembly Election since 1998, and there would be quite a number of MLAs losing their seats. It would be hard to see the party above 20 seats.

For the other leading Executive party, Sinn Féin, the results are not good either. At 22%, they would be back to 2003 levels of support, where they scored just over 23% of the vote. All of the surge in support that they have recorded since 2017 will have disappeared. In terms of seats, rather than looking at gains, the party would be on track to lose seats overall and miss out on some of those potential gains that they had been targeting from their strong 2022 result. The one consolation for them in this poll is that they would still remain the largest party.

The last party under pressure in this poll is Alliance. During the previous mandate, it was almost a repetitive talking point highlighting how well they were doing, but during this mandate the reverse is now the case. Scoring 10%, the party will have to worry about how stable many of those gains that were made in 2022 now are. If this is repeated on Election Day 2027, Alliance would be back to where they were in 2017.

What comes next? 

A couple of things to look out for in the short term are candidate selections. Some parties have already begun announcing their candidates for next May, but it will be interesting to see which parties are taking an expansionist approach versus a conservative one. Polls like this and feedback from canvasses inform how parties approach the election. What they do in this area will tell us how much they believe numbers like the ones we have seen in polls like this.

The normal caveat has already been mentioned that a poll is a snapshot in time and, like all of them, there is a margin of error. However, if this is repeated next May, what would happen? The Sinn Féin/DUP led Executive would likely be returned, but both would be greatly diminished political forces. Alliance would also be reflecting on seat losses. The UUP, SDLP and TUV would be celebrating gains. Would opposition become much more of an attractive political port in the next mandate? There would also be questions around the ability of Sinn Féin and the DUP to compromise and deal with controversial issues that are bound to arise during the next mandate in a weakened political condition.

The next Assembly could be one of the most politically diverse and interesting that we have seen for a long time.