UUP Conference: Can the Party Build on Early Signs of Growth?
The Ulster Unionists are gearing up for their final conference before the next election. The once-dominant party of Unionism has spent the past 25 years searching for a route out of the wilderness. They have moved from left to right, trying alliances with the Conservatives and then a softer version with the SDLP. They have tried multiple new leaders, with 8 since the turn of the century. Yet despite all of these different approaches, the vote, with just a handful of exceptions, has continued to go down and seats have been lost.
But is the losing streak about to be broken? Are the party’s fortunes beginning to change under Jon Burrows as leader?
The Decline
In 1998, the UUP achieved 21.3%, with more than 172,000 votes. Fast forward to 2022, where the party achieved 11.2% of the vote with just over 96,000 votes. In all but two Assembly elections since 1998, the UUP vote has fallen. In the last election, for the first time in Northern Ireland's history, the party’s elected representatives at Stormont were in single digits.
The party has gone from holding multiple ministries, with some of the top picks going to the UUP, to now being entitled to just one ministry. They are also entitled to just one committee chair.
The decline in votes and seats has directly affected not just the party’s prestige, but also its ability to shape the policy direction of institutions at Stormont.
The Rise?
At a low ebb, the party has taken a punt on an untried and untested leader, Jon Burrows. Elected as leader unopposed after only a few months in the Assembly, he has begun reshaping and organising the party.
His short tenure has not been without its issues. Upper Bann MLA Doug Beattie has left the party, and former Health Minister Mike Nesbitt resigned in August.
However, the first set of polls points to early signs of growth. Let’s start with the party rating: since Burrows became leader, it has ranged from 13% to 16% in the polls. At the low end, this is where the UUP has traditionally polled. Still, if the party gets anything around that 16% mark, it could have a meaningful breakthrough in the Assembly and Local Government elections in May.
Burrows has shown in a short period that he can connect with Unionist voters. His personal ratings are strong with this base, and on a few key issues, he is differentiating himself from the DUP and TUV.
The Future
The question remains whether he can sustain the momentum he has going into this conference. Remember back to 2021, the talk then was about the “Beattie bounce”, and by election day in 2022, all that momentum had melted away.
For Burrows, he has to leave this conference showing that his party is more than just him. Successful challenger parties always come with deep benches of talent. The DUP understood that in the early 2000s, which is why names like Peter Robinson, Nigel Dodds and Sammy Wilson were as well known as Ian Paisley.
Who are the handful of figures around Jon who can add to his coalition and show the UUP has a broad tent of talent? A party conference is a great opportunity to profile and highlight these figures.
The UUP start from a long way back. Reclaiming lost ground won't be easy or happen in one electoral cycle. The party’s decline has been steady over twenty years, and reversing it will take time. The UUP has had only one leader take it into two consecutive assembly elections since David Trimble. Burrows has risen rapidly, but restoring the UUP to its once-dominant position will take much more time.
After the conference, expect a focus on whether the party should go into opposition after the next election and how it engages with the ongoing Unionist cooperation debate with the DUP and TUV.
Burrows has shown himself to be a leader who isn't afraid to get out in front and show how he differs from his main rivals. How he does this whilst engaging in cooperation talks will be an interesting balancing act.