Alliance at a Crossroads: Defending the Surge
By David McCann, Strategic Political Analyst at Brown O’Connor Public Affairs
Conference season is back, and in just a few weeks, Alliance will be meeting in Belfast as they gear up for the Assembly and Local Elections in May 2027. It has been an odd year for the party as personal approval ratings and polls have taken a dip. The party's rising popularity since 2017 is fading, and Alliance will have to fight to hold on to recent gains at the next election.
One of the quirkiest electoral facts about Alliance is that they are the only one of the five main parties not to have lost an Assembly seat since 1998. The key question election nerds like me will be debating in the coming year is whether this nearly thirty-year streak comes to an end in 2027.
Threats and Opportunities
The surge in seats for the party in 2022 means that they now have to hold that ground against strong competition. Polls have shown a slight dip in the party's support. Some of the Alliance wins were by just a few hundred votes, and in some of these seats, the candidates who won them have since stepped down from the Assembly.
In North Antrim, Alliance scored a high-profile gain at the expense of the DUP, with Patricia O’Lynn beating out Mervyn Storey by just around 300 votes. O’Lynn stepped down in 2024, being replaced by Sian Mulholland. With the TUV looking to gain a second seat and the DUP looking to regain lost ground, this will be a key seat defence for the party.
In Upper Bann, now Deputy Leader, Eoin Tennyson gained a seat from the SDLP. His main rival in this constituency is Sinn Féin, whom he beat for this seat by just 400 votes. This will be one of Sinn Féin’s top target seats in 2027.
Another threat from Sinn Féin comes in South Down. With the departure of Patrick Brown and with Sinn Féin being on a roll in the constituency, there will be a temptation from the party to run three candidates and gain a seat, which, on current numbers, would be at the expense of Andy McMurray.
It’s not all about defence, though. The party was a strong contender in East Londonderry, missing out by just a handful of votes in 2022. The last seat there is a cracking three-way contest between the SDLP, Sinn Féin, and Alliance.
On a bad day, the party could come back with 13-14 seats. Alliance is incredibly transfer-friendly, which helps them retain seats. However, falling back will undoubtedly dent the party’s confidence.
On a good day, they could hold their own or just drop a seat, which would give confidence that the surge of recent years is built on strong foundations.
Top performers
The increase in seats brought in new talent for the party. So far, the waves have been made by Eoin Tennyson, Kate Nicholl, Nick Mathison and Michelle Guy, who have used their Assembly platforms in the chamber and through committees to raise their profiles.
Alliance can boast of talent in its parliamentary ranks and of its MLAs making an impact across different areas of Stormont. What is hurting the party is the Executive’s perceived performance, and that will be more likely to determine voting behaviour next year.
Road to the election
Between 2022 and 2023, Alliance picked up 23 additional seats across the Assembly and Local Government levels. Now, on the same day, they have to defend 84 seats across Northern Ireland.
To do this, the party needs to focus on its role in the Executive and how, without a collapse leading up to the election, it maintains its position amongst disaffected voters. Public apathy for devolution has not fallen since the last election, which is why the party needs to focus on why it is not performing better in the polls.
They need to present a clear argument about what they have achieved, what has been blocked, and who blocked it. Then, a clear position on the opposition post-2027.
At the last election, Alliance wanted voters to demand better. Ahead of 2027, they need to spell out what they have done to make things better and why they remain the vehicle to achieve that mission in the years ahead.